Peak cost PK demand ptajuly shock is expected to i

2022-08-23
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Cost PK demand PTA is expected to intensify in July

market overview this month:

in the first half of June, PTA continued its rise in May, peaking and falling in the second half of the month. The spot market also showed a trend of peaking and falling. PX soared in the middle of this month, with the highest PTA spot price of 10000 yuan, and the downstream polyester and polyester prices also showed a good rise. However, the short-term demand boost brought by the earthquake to the downstream gradually subsided in late days. The off-season demand of the chemical fiber industry came in July and August, which weakened the demand for downstream products and led the decline of the entire industrial chain. Affected by the sluggish downstream demand, PTA prices also fell sharply

I PTA upstream market will remain strong and the cost will remain high

in terms of crude oil, geopolitical and seasonal factors often make the oil price hit a new high in summer. At present, crude oil is in a strong position, and the impact of the rebound of the US dollar on oil prices is weakened, but the decline has driven oil prices higher. 3. In the later stage of orthopedic implant preparation technology, the US dollar is expected to maintain a range shock pattern, which will further increase the oil price in this process

as crude oil prices continue to rise, naphtha prices continue the upward trend in May, and the trend basically follows the change of crude oil prices, rising from $1074/ton in May to $1192/ton, an increase of more than 10%. The subsequent market trend also depends entirely on the change of crude oil price, and the correlation with the downstream PTA trend is not obvious

in June, PX continued to rise sharply under the dual stimulation of crude oil futures prices hitting new highs and tight market supply and demand. The FOB price of PX spot in South Korea rose from $1470/ton closed in May to $1685/ton, up more than 200 dollars, and the latest report was $1618/ton. Asian heterogeneous MX also rose from $1270/ton at the beginning of the month to $1468/ton for national project research led by China Xinda, with the latest quotation of $1360/ton. In late June, with the slight decline of crude oil prices and the weak willingness of PTA downstream buyers, prices fell, and PX and MX prices also fell. However, due to the weakness of the US dollar and the continued high consolidation of crude oil, it is expected that PX and MX prices will be difficult to make a major correction in the future

corresponding trend chart of Japanese naphtha and NY crude oil. (data source: CSC futures)

PX Korea FOB and NY crude oil corresponding trend chart. (data source: CSC futures)

corresponding trend chart of main contract and PX South Korea FOB price. (data source: CSC futures)

the PX contract quotation in July was issued with a high profile. Mobil, Japan's Chuguang and shinrishi both quoted the PX contract quotation in July at US dollars/ton, which was much higher than US $1450 and US $1460/ton in June. Such a huge monthly quotation increase is quite rare in recent years. At present, the contract price is still under negotiation. At the end of June, the downstream market price fell continuously. Considering the actual situation of the downstream, the PX supplier made a modest concession. PetroChina Japan has adjusted its July PX contract price from 1770 US dollars/ton to 1640 US dollars/ton

from the perspective of PX suppliers, the high price of naphtha and MX is an important reason for the high price of PX. At present, the price of naphtha is around us $per ton. According to the cost of PX suppliers, only plastic bottle manufacturers who have been engaged in relevant production for a long time will have a better understanding of PX below US $per ton. It seems that there is no need to produce px. In terms of MX price, due to the extremely tight spot supply in July, the heterogeneous MX market in Asia also surged in mid June, hitting a historical record of $1467.5/t FOB South Korea and $1492.5/t CFR Taiwan, up $150/T and $162.5/T from the previous week's close. At present, the price difference between PX and MX in Asia is 192.5 US dollars/ton. Generally, in order to pass on the cost of raw materials, PX manufacturers hope to maintain the price difference of US dollars/ton between PX valuation (FOB Korea) and heterogeneous MX valuation (I can introduce some common problems in Taiwan below CFR), and the income level of PX manufacturers is normal. Therefore, the price of PX above 1650 dollars is the price that PX suppliers are interested in producing. Otherwise, the demand for gasoline and the high price of MX will curb the supply of PX

according to the PX contract price in July currently under negotiation, the PTA cost of this month is 1640 * 7 * 1.02 * 1.17 + 120 = 1382013820 * 0.67 + 1424 = 10689 yuan/ton, which is 1000 yuan higher than the current spot price

trend chart of contract price and PTA cost. (data source: CSC futures)

the high cost and sluggish demand make PTA manufacturers less motivated to start production, and the decline in inventory reflects this fact

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